Place your bets - 2025 Summer Marble Blast Tournament

Hi, everyone. Bringing back an old tradition for the tournament, giving hPerks his deserved shoutout for starting this.

This is the betting game! For every match throughout the tournament, you can bet (with fake money, of course) on the winner and final score, and your aim is to finish with the highest net gain out of everyone (total money won minus total money bet). Here is how the game works: For each match, you can place a bet on:

• The winner
• The final score

Payouts:

• All bets for a match go into a single shared pool. Each pool starts at $500.
• That pool is split only among players who guessed the winner correctly.
• Payouts are proportional to how much each correct bettor wagered.
• If you also guess the score correctly, you earn a 20% bonus payout. There is no penalty for a wrong score prediction.

Rules:

• Minimum bet: $100.
• Maximum bet: $500.
• Bet on as many or as few matches as you like.
• You can't bet on a match that has already happened. We're following the honor code here that no one edits a bet after a match,
• You can't bet on your own match.
• There is no budget; everyone has unlimited money.
• The winner is whoever finishes with the highest net gain (winnings minus bets).

Examples:
Example 1 – No Score Predictions
The match is Mazik vs. Kalle

Bets:
Bettor 1: $100 on Mazik ✅
Bettor 2: $200 on Mazik ✅
Bettor 3: $500 on Kalle ❌
Total pot: $900

Bettors 1 and 2 proportionally share the pool for guessing the winner correctly, receiving $300 and $600 respectively. Bettor 3 receives $0. If Kalle had won, Bettor 3 would've received the entire $900.

Example 2 – With Score Predictions
The match is Mazik vs. Kalle, and Mazik wins 3-2.

Bets:
Bettor 1: $300 on Mazik, 3–2 score ✅✅
Bettor 2: $200 on Mazik, 3-1 score ✅❌
Bettor 3: $500 on Kalle, 3-2 score ❌✅
Total pot: $1,000

Bettors 1 and 2 share the pool for guessing the winner correctly ($600 and $400 respectively). However, Better 1 receives an extra 20% to their winnings for also guessing the score correctly, which is taken from the rest of the available earnings (while still keeping the proportions correct).
Bettor 1 receives $643.
Bettor 2 receives $357.
Bettor 3 receives $0 for not guessing the winner correctly. If Kalle had won, Bettor 3 would received the entire $1,000, regardless of guessing the correct score or not.

Onwards!
There is a designated channel for placing your bets on the discord server, in a channel called #tourney-bets. If you would like to participate, all you have to do is post in the channel, where you will simply state the player you predict to win, the final score, and how much money you're betting. You are welcome to place your bets as a reply to this thread too.

You do not need to be participating in the tournament to place bets!

After every round of the tournament, I will post the result of every match and everyone's net gain for that week. The final standings will be posted after the winner of the tournament is decided.

Good luck, and may your predictions be bold and lucky! 💸

At the end of the first week...

Jacob: $2,123.95 (+$2,123.95)
Mazik: $2,114.02 (+$2,114.02)
MBOUltimate: $1,663.32 (+$1,663.32)
Jean: $1,485.67 (+$1,485.67)
ShadowVisions: $1,479.00 (+$1,479.00)
Powerjohn25: $1,453.73 (+$1,453.73)
LaSharkus: $1,413.64 (+$1,413.64)
ohSauce: $1,274.42 (+$1,274.42)
Nockess: $1,236.54 (+$1,236.54)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$1,228.96)
serjG: $893.46 (+$893.46)
Wilchz: $801.24 (+$801.24​​​​​​​)
Connie: $71.43 (+$71.43​​​​​​​)
Eguy: $45.51 (+$45.51​​​​​​​)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (-$16.67​​​​​​​​​​​​​​)
pasta_real: -$268.23 (-$268.23)
A-Game: -$6,000.00 (-$6,000.00)

Jacob stands as the only person who bet on the winner for every match, and deservingly ends the week at the top. Mazik did not bet on MBOUltimate, but predicted every winner correctly as well. Eguy, Connie, and Platoxide who only bet on a combined four people, and Powerjohn25 illegally bet on himself. A-Game went for gold in betting on the "away" player in 12 of the 22 matches, but wasn't able to cash in.

Is betting closed now if we haven't started already?

Also, in your example, shouldn't the total pot say $800 rather than $900? Although even then, I would be confused, because didn't you say each betting pool starts at $500, so the total pots for the examples should be $1,300 and $1,500 respectively? Maybe I've got this all wrong. I probably won't bet anyway, but I couldn't help noticing that (and also feeling like it looks weird to just have a list of betting results with no context because no one posted their bets here, but that can't be helped).

Originally the starting $500 I had taken out (before I realized it would in fact be useful), but I wrote/calculated the examples after I re-added the starting pool. In actual practice, it's all accounted for. (I'll rewrite the initial post... eventually.)

You can start bets whenever you want. People have (unsurprisingly) resorted to the designated Discord channel.

At the end of the second week...

LaSharkus: $5,501.77 (+$4,088.13)
Jacob: $3,191.38 (+$1,067.43)
MBOUltimate: $2,452.47 (+$789.15)
Mazik: $2,350.37 (+$236.35)
serjG: $2,027.84 (+$1,134.39)
Jean: $1,714.69 (+$229.02)
ShadowVisions: $1,546.32 (+$67.31)
ohSauce: $1,274.42 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
Powerjohn25: $555.09 (-$898.64)
Nockess: $288.46 (-$948.07)
Wilchz: $75.44 (-$725.80)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
Eguy: -$288.33 (-$333.84)
Keigo: -$500.00 (-$500.00)
Connie: -$1,168.55 (-$1,239.98)
pasta_real: -$1,424.57 (-$1,156.35)
A-Game: -$6,809.09 (-$809.09)

No one went perfect for either winners or scores this week, but the match results with the most overwhelming effects for the standings come from Jean's upset over Xedron (who was favored 12:1) and Keigo's 3-2 win over serjG (who was favored 11:2). A-Game was the single vote for Jean, who claimed the entire $6,100, but that on top of a correct prediction for Keigo (for $3,090.91, just under half the pot) was still $809.09 short of breaking even. LaSharkus was the other recipient of the winnings, earning a larger $3,097.09 for a correct score bet as well.
Less noticeably, but still an upset without question, was Ignas' win over bobirika12, who was favored 9:5. Jacob, Jean, LaSharkus, MBOUltimate, and serjG, with only Jean not taking at least $1,000.

At the end of the third week:

LaSharkus: $9,085.88 (+$3,615.59)
MBOUltimate: $5,687.90 (+$3,005.28)
Jacob: $5,247,91 (+$1,817.81)
serjG: $2,830.29 (+$516.88)
Mazik: $2,811.51 (+$314.16)
Jean: $2,752.71 (+$837.40)
ShadowVisions: $2,676.09 (+$1,056.49)
Eguy: $1,950.82 (+$2,267.41)
Powerjohn25: $1,556.70 (-$833.50)
Wilchz: $1,470.91 (-$725.80)
Nockess: $1,309.35 (-$948.07)
ohSauce: $1,274.42 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
Connie: $384.91 (-$1,548.50)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
Keigo: -$500.00 (-$0.00)
Ziggleflig: -$500.00 (-$500.00)
Jaxx: -$537.09 (-$537.09)
pasta_real: -$745.55 (-$13.96)
A-Game: -$12,969.03 (-$6,659.94)

LaSharkus continues to comfortably pull away, earning the most this week on top of having already been in the lead; his only incorrect winner prediction was pasta_real, who lost a five-game match to Elementlover, and his largest earnings came from A-Game's win over Jaxx with 4:9 odds. Eguy also benefited kindly from thearst3rd's win over subtract (4:8 odds) and ShadowVisions' win over Connie (7:7) odds.

At the end of the fourth week:

LaSharkus: $8,807.11 (-$273.66)
Jacob: $7,001.95 (+$1,754.04)
MBOUltimate: $6,926.02 (+$1,238.12)
serjG: $4,994.93 (+$2,164.63)
Jean: $4,074.12 (+$1,321.41)
Wilchz: $3,928.81 (+$2,457.90)
Mazik: $3,856,16 (+$1,044.65)
Eguy: $3,607.40 (+$1,656.57)
ShadowVisions: $3,267.44 (+$591.36)
Nockess: $2,561.33 (+1,251.98)
ohSauce: $1,867.75 (+$593.33)
Powerjohn25: $1,556.70 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
pasta_real: $1,148.97 (+1,894.53)
Connie: $384.91 (+$0.00)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
bobirika12: -$100.00 (-$100.00)
Keigo: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Ziggleflig: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Jaxx: -$537.09 (+$0.00)
A-Game: -$17,563.88 (-$4,594.85)

While LaSharkus remains at the top by almost $2,000, he actually loses money this week while all but two people (excluding those who did not bet) gain some earnings. Wilchz walks away with this week’s largest payout, largely thanks to a payout of over $2,000 by predicting Ggjakub’s win and walking away with just over half of the pool. pasta_real finally escapes the negatives after three weeks of losing money, bobirika12 joins the party and immediately loses $100 from Eguy's loss to , and A-Game continues to dig a hole into the center of the Earth.

At the end of the fifth week:

LaSharkus: $8,756.78 (-$55.43)
MBOUltimate: $7,851 (+$925.43)
Jacob: $7,446.59 (+$444.64)
Mazik: $6,784.14 (+$2,927.98)
Wilchz: $5,283.20 (+$1,354.40)
Eguy: $4,633.01 (+$1,025.62)
serjG: $4,464.88 (-$530.04)
ShadowVisions: $4,372.72 (+$1,105.28)
Jean: $2,972.94 (-$1,101.18)
ohSauce: $2,970.80 (+$1,103.05)
Kalle29: $2,880.90 (+2,880.90)
Nockess: $1,989.82 (-$571.61)
Powerjohn25: $1,556.70 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
bobirika12: 37,72 (+$137.72)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
Connie: -$115.09 (-$500.00)
Keigo: -$315.95 (+$184.05)
Ziggleflig: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Jaxx: -$537.09 (+$0.00)
pasta_real: -$1,859.49 (-$3,008.46)
A-Game: -$19,311.06 (-$1,747.18)

Kalle29 introduced himself to the game this week with four predictions that earned him over $1,000 (plus HerrZealous' win for $968.05), one match being ShadowVisions' win over Voltage that Mazik also gained over $1,600 from. LaSharkus continues to fall while MBOUltimate remains on his tail, the gap between 1st and 2nd closing to within $1,000. pasta_real takes the biggest loss of the week, nearly doubling A-Game's loss.

At the end of the Swiss Rounds:

LaSharkus: $9,610.05 (+$853.27)
MBOUltimate: $9,396.42 (+$1,544.97)
Mazik: $6,784.14 (+$0.00)
Jacob: $5,739.33 (-$1,707.26)
ShadowVisions: $5,343.71 (+$970.99)
Jean: $5,261.07 (+$2,288.13)
serjG: $5,047.36 (+$582.48)
Eguy: $4,861.26 (+$228.24)
Nockess: $4,697.03 (+$2,707.21)
Wilchz: $3,998.65 (-$1,284.55)
ohSauce: $2,970.80 (+$0.00)
Powerjohn25: $1,556.70 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
Kalle29: $1,133.22 (-$1,747.68)
husemat: $740.38 (+$740.38)
bobirika12: $222.82 (+$185.11)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
Keigo: -$315.95 (+$0.00)
Endy: -$500.00 (+$500.00)
Ziggleflig: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Connie: -$512.34 (-$397.25)
Jaxx: -$537.09 (+$0.00)
pasta_real: -$4,285.74 (-$2,426.25)
A-Game: -$10,848.86 (+$8,462.20)

Over $8,000 goes to A-Game, giving him the largest earning of the game this tournament; the upsets by Nockess over Jean, Wilchz over Jacob, and bobirika12 over Mazik netted him over FOURTEEN THOUSAND DOLLARS. LaSharkus finally goes green again after two consecutive weeks of falling, but MBOUltimate is always trailing behind him and gaining. Jean and Nockess gain a combined $5,000 (partially thanks to not having bets for one of the major upsets), while Jacob, Wilchz, and Kalle29 all suffer hard drops.

Into the playoffs...

Welcome to the playoffs! With them comes a new piece to the game, but first to note:

The maximum bet amount is raised to $1,000. You can bet more boldly and win even better, but you can also suffer harsher consequences...

With that said, time to introduce Podium Bets! You can now predict the final top 3 finishers of the tournament for a change at massive payouts! Here's the deal:

How It Works:
You can place up to three side bets, one each on who you think will finish:

• 1st (Champion)
• 2nd (Finalist)
• 3rd (Third place match winner)

You can bet between $500 and $2,000 on each of your picks. You must bet three different players for three different placements, or none at all. You are allowed to bet for yourselves given the higher stakes of the matches.
This is separate from the match-by-match betting—that's still continuing, so you can do both! 

Payout Structure:
Your payout (for each bet) depends on how far your picked players make it in the playoffs:

• Play-ins exit: x0
• Round of 16 exit: x0.25
• Quarterfinals exit: x0.5
• 4th Place: x1.0
• 3rd Place: x1.25
• 2nd Place: x1.5
• Champion: x2.5

Additionally, you can earn more if you place your finishers exactly where they end up:

•  An extra x0.5 multiplier for each correct finisher—this only applies to the top 3.
• If you correctly guess the champion, you receive a 10% bonus on your total Podium Bets payout!

Example:
$2,000 on ShadowVisions to win it all ✅ (they do!)
$2,000 on Eguy to take 2nd ❌ (they lose in QFs)
$2,000 on Connie to take 3rd ❌ (they lose in R16)

Earnings:
ShadowVisions: 2.5× base + 0.5× correct guess = $6,000
Eguy: Quarterfinals exit = 0.5× = $1,000
Connie: Round of 16 exit = 0.25× = $500
Total = $7,500

+10% champion bonus = $750
Final payout: $8,250

Bring it on!
A new thread in the #tourney-bets channel has opened, called "Podium Bets". If you choose to participate, write your three predicted players, their positions, and the amount of money you're betting. The thread will close when the Play-Ins round begins next Monday, so don't miss your chance!

And again, you do not need to be participating in the tournament to place bets.

Good luck, and see you in two weeks for the Play-Ins results! 💸

At the end of the Play-Ins:

LaSharkus: $14,058.27 (+$3,846.82)
MBOUltimate: $10,663.31 (+$665.49)
Nockess: $8,061.33 (+$2,763.21)
Mazik: $7,385.55 (+$0.00)
serjG: $6,774.51 (+$1,125.71)
Jacob: $6,340.74 (+$0.00)
Jean: $6,071.72 (+$209.24)
Wilchz: $5,572.89 (+$1,063.04)
ShadowVisions: $5,539.36 (-$405.76)
Eguy: $4,861.26 (+$0.00)
ohSauce: $2,970.80 (+$0.00)
bobirika12: $2,231.56 (+$2,008.73)
Kalle29: $1,634.39 (+$0.00)
Powerjohn25: $1,556.70 (+$0.00)
Elementlover: $1,228.96 (+$0.00)
eNetro: $1,149.81 (+$1,149.81)
husemat: $740.38 (+$0.00)
Platoxide: -$16.67 (+$0.00)
Keigo: -$315.95 (+$0.00)
Yoshicraft224: -$420.00 (-$420.00)
Endy: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Ziggleflig: -$500.00 (+$0.00)
Connie: -$512.34 (+$0.00)
Jaxx: -$537.09 (+$0.00)
pasta_real: -$7,829.32 (-$4,144.98)
A-Game: -$13,710.19 (+$2,861.33)

Welcome eNetro and Yoshicraft224! LaSharkus finds his momentum again and claims the largest earning of the week, putting over $3,000 between him and second-place MBOUltimate. Nockess shoots up to third from ninth place last week while ShadowVisions drops two after his first week below zero. Quite a few players didn't put in bets, including Jacob and Eguy who hadn't yet missed a week. pasta_real and A-Game are still comfortably in the basement.